EAST AND WEST RELATIONS
Essay: “How has Russia changed and adapted since 1989? What are the consequences of these changes? Who are the protagonists?”
I decided to write this essay while I was watching again on TV the images of the massacre in Beslan. Chechnya has been the bloodiest political conflict in the new Russia of the nineties. Certainly, this is something very difficult to imagine some years back, beyond the iron curtain. So I will try to explain what has happened in Russia since 1989, which have been the changes and their protagonists, and why Russia reached were it is now. Chechnya is a part of the story, but not all of it. There will be communists and the birth of new old nations, alcohol and mafia, powerful tycoons that made a fortune from scratch, terrorism and nuclear weapons. All the elements that are needed to create a good thriller. But it is better, for it is real.
There are three men that can be chosen undoubtedly as the main characters of this drama. Of course there are a lot of important actors on such a huge stage as Russia is, but a good way to structure the last 15 years is to focus on these three man: the last Secretary General of the USSR and its only President: Mikhail Gorbachev, and the two Presidents Russia has had so far: Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin. Ruling in Russia has been very personalistic since the Czarism. Perhaps strong personal leadership is the only way to hold together such a large territory. Let’s see what they change in the Russia they inherited from the past.
1989-1991. Collapse of the Soviet Bloc and emergence of the new Russia.
Mikhail Gorbachev was appointed Secretary General of the USSR in 1985. After the dead of Brezhnev in 1983, there were two ephemeral Secretaries: Andropov and Chernenko, the two of them selected from the ranks of the old guard. Gorbachev was young and dynamic and soon he started to implement reforms so that a declining regime that had been established in 1917 could survive. He had not live the times of the Revolution or the War as and adult. By 1989 his reforms, which we know in the West by the totalizing name of “perestroika” (sometimes we also use “glasnost”) had arrived at a point of no return. We will remember 1989 for the picture of people going across the Berlin Wall and this fact was possible thanks to the reforms initiated a few years before by Gorbachev in the USSR, which extended through the Eastern Europe countries.
Along with Gorbachev, a new generation of leaders arose. Some of them wanted to follow the pace of the Secretary General. Some wanted more changes and they wanted them to happen faster. Among those, Boris Yeltsin got to be the most notorious, leading the Russian Soviet Federation into the new Russia. After the collapse of the Soviet Union he was the President of Russia during the nineties, a very important decade for Russia.
Gorbachev’s goal was not the change but the reform. He was the catalyst for the change, but in a moment the events bypassed him. As Ferguson says it “the reform in the Soviet Union and Russia was driven in part by necessity, but also by a revolution-from-above”[1].
Gorbachev’s reforms were seen as too slow by a significant part of the population of the USSR. However, the signals he sent were received by the Western world with hope. This is due to the fact that the foreign and home policies were driven by the same impulse, but affected the actors differently. This explains how popular Gorbachev was abroad and how unpopular within the USSR.
In foreign policy we can say that Gorbachev virtually ended the Cold War, by reducing the tension in Europe through disarmament and reduction of military forces. This made possible the expansion of NATO during the following decade. The changes in the Soviet system and the wave that followed it in Eastern Europe (and Gorbachev did a lot so that the Communist Parties in other countries could reform as well) allowed the fall of the Berlin Wall and the reunification of Germany. His role in the foreign affairs, by using diplomacy and international organizations (especially the UN) as a means to get support from abroad was also important. He also improved relations with several countries (such as China) and was crucial in reducing tension in the Middle East area by allowing the immigration of Soviet Jews to Israel, and retiring support to anti-Israeli organizations.
But by 1991 his time was over. The August 1991 coup was the last try of a regime that was agonizing. Some military wanted it to come back to the old Soviet days, but the majority of the population was against them. Yeltsin, already President of the Russian Federation, emerged as the leader Russia needed, and Gorbachev’s return to power was just symbolic as the Soviet Union was falling apart.
1991-1999. Yeltsin’s decade.
On the 25th December 1991 Mikhail Gorbachev announced on TV the end of the Soviet Union. This entity, created in 1922 had ceased to exist. A weak Confederation of Independent States was just born, but Russia inherited most of the power of the Soviet Union. A Russia that still had to solve some important territorial problems, led by the man who had been elected President by the 57% of the Russians in the first free elections ever (June 1991), and against the ruling Communist Party and its nomenklatura.
With Gorbachev, the old Communist Party and USSR out of the political stage we entered a new era in which the inheritance of the Soviet Union had to be divided among the new republics. The independence of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia (proclaimed in September 1991) was accepted and there were talks about what to do with the ex-Soviet territories. Basically Russia took the biggest part of the legacy, the nuclear arsenal, the seat in the Security Council and the embassies abroad. Some tensions arose, though, such as those with Ukraine abut the Crimean peninsula or the Black Sea fleet, but the process went orderly taking into account what it could be expected.
Within Russia, people expected a lot from the President. Yeltsin wanted a rapid transition to a market economy. So soon the reforms started. He managed to be granted special powers to deal personally with the scenario, but between 1991 and 1993, important discrepancies arose between the President and the Parliament, all of which ended with the open rebellion of the latter and the bombardment of the Parliamentary seat. After that fact, a new Constitution was approved. One which was overtly presidentialist and some analysts have compared to the French political system.
Which were Yeltsin’s reforms? In the political field he started which symbolic things as new flag and anthem or the change or Soviet place names into the traditional ones. Then, on 31st March 1992 the Federation Treaty was signed by all the autonomous republics but Chechnya and Tatarstan. Tatarsan would join later, but the problems with Chechnya had just started to appear. This was the prelude of the two Wars of Chechnya.
During 1992 the divorce between Yeltsin and the Congress of People’s Deputies started. The main reform of the political architecture of Russia will arrive in December 1993 with the new Constitution. In the meantime, Yeltsin started to modify the economy of the country towards the liberalization and stability. He started an ambitious programme of privatizations in which a group of a few, latter known as “the oligarchs” (notoriously Berezovsky, Khodorovsky) will become rich in a matter of months.
On 2nd January 1992, Yeltsin ordered the liberalization of foreign trade, prices, and currency. The first result of these policies was hyperinflation. Suddenly, the Russians started to deal with inequality and poverty. Some began to feel some nostalgia of the old good Soviet times, which brought to the political scenario to a new Communist Party. The privatisation started in October, and it was a giant’s step towards converting Russia into a market economy. It made rich a few, but left unhappy to many.
In the month of March of 1993, Congress of People’s Deputies passed legislation to limit presidential powers, but Yeltsin took more powers, that were validated by a referendum on 25th April. The gap between the Congress and Yeltsin was growing and it reached its maximum in September, when Presidential troops entered the building of the Parliament to dissolve it.
On 12th December there were elections to choose the new Duma and a referendum to ratify the Constitution. The new constitution allowed Yeltsin to remain in power until 1996, which he did. The years between 1993 and 1996 were starred by the consolidation of the new system, the clashes of power, the difficult adaptation to the market economy and the First War in Chechnya that started in December 1994. Also the state of the health of Yeltsin was an important issue in the agenda. He suffered two heart attacks in 1995, and an orderly succession was not guaranteed.
In December 1995 the new Communist Party of the Russian Federation, led by Gennady Zyuganov won the elections to the state Duma. It was a surprise to the analysts that Communism in Russia was still alive and had chances to get the power again.
One of the important milestones of Russian transition to democracy arrived in 1996, where elections to the Presidency were hold. Yeltsin arrived as a man of weakened health. His popularity was at a minimum, but I obtained the support of the media and thanks to a pact with the General Lebed (the third candidate) he could reverse the situation and beat Zyuganov in the second round. The reforms that Yeltsin and his team had been implemented since the early nineties suffered a critical test in 1998. In August, the Prime Minister Kirienko announces rouble devaluation, the market paralyzed by liquidity shortages, the price of the shares plunged and Russia defaulted foreign loans.
The political fallout of Yeltsin started after the crisis. He had to fire all his government, with the Duma refusing his candidate. 1999 was a an unstable year that ended with the resignation of the President.
1999-2004 Putin leads Russia towards the future.
An ailing Yeltsin’s abdicated on the last day of the century, his power was inherited by his young Prime Minister: He had been appointing Prime Minister in August, replacing Stepashin who only stayed in office for four months. Stepashin replaced Primakov who was the compromise solution to get out of the economic crisis.
Vladimir Putin, the former spy, a man who does not smoke or drink alcohol took the power from an alcoholic Boris Yeltsin whose time was gone. Its image was very good, and he arrived to the Presidency with time to prepare the elections.
There is almost general consensus on the issue that Putin’s first term has been successful, even if it can be also remembered by disasters such as the Kursk submarine, the assault to the theatre in Moscow or the killings in Chechnya.
Putin declared a “tyranny of law” (Ferguson 2004) to attack the mafia, the oligarchs and the bureaucratic corruption, he is moving Russian army into professionalism and was adamant in continuing the war in Chechnya, but being very careful not to upset other countries which its way of doing so, so that they do not move from their position and consider the conflict “an internal issue”.
The foreign policy of Russia has seen some moves under Putin, such as the approach to the United States on the “global war on terror” after September 11th 2001 and also important discrepancies about the war on Iraq in 2003. Russia has improved its relations to the European Union and has held similar positions as the German’s or French’s. Its strategic partnership with the European Union, its principal business partner is going to be crucial in the future.
At home Putin challenged the power of the regional governors, divided the country in seven federal districts and reset the vertical of power in Russia. Even if territorial tensions have been reduced, there is always a problem in Chechnya waiting to be solved and this is not going to be smooth.
In the aftermath of the crisis if 1998, the situation of the Russian economy started to improve in 2000 and it is going very well. It is still very dependent on exports of gas and oil, but the GDP’s growth has been spectacular. It’s difficult to say there are problems around the corner, when the barrel of oil is around 50 US$, but there is still a huge part of the population on the verge of poverty and they cannot feel the improvements of the economy. Russia’s growth has being fast and large in the Putin’s years, though.
The reform of the judiciary and administrative system has not been as much of an achievement as those obtained by Putin on other fields. Also, fight against corruption which is an endemic problem in Russia since the Soviet times is not showing much improvement. A change of attitude towards the oligarchs can be perceived, being the imprisonment of Khodorovsky an outstanding example of how the alliance of the Kremlin with the factual powers it is not necessary as in Yeltsin’s times and that Putin does not want anybody to rule the country for him.
All of this made him comfortably the elections of March 2004, getting a 70% of the votes. Although, it is debatable that Russia is an authentic democracy, if nobody else can get over the 10%, and international observers are not quite happy with the way in which the process developed.
Conclusion.
How has Russia changed and adapted since 1989? Russia has being trying to become a democracy and an economy market. If this is already a reality, on the way of happening or a fabrication depends on who looks. Certainly, government in Russia shows evidence of authoritarianism and there are plenty of defects in this democracy, as in any other. For some experts Russia can be only compared to medium-income democracies, such as Mexico or Brazil and if we use that frame, then is doing as it should be expected. So, the problem of little glasnost and the oligarchic (or governmental) control of the media is about what it should be. (Sheifler 2004).
The market economy status is about to be granted, as Russia will probably enter the WTO organization in 2005. Of course it is an economy very tightly controlled by the State (as some of Putin’s interventions show), but some of the countries that were successful in becoming competitive economies, such as the Asian Dragons, used the same formula to improve their position in the world economy. Still, there is a lot of work left, so to reduce the poverty and inequality in the new Russia.
There are a lot of consequences of the changes Russia has experienced. The end of the Cold War or the “end of the history” as some foresaid was the first one. The political map of Europe changed notoriously between 1989 and 1993. New countries arose and Russia had to adapt to its new role. Some of them (the Baltic republics) left quickly to not return. Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus are more or less in the area of influence of Russia. The Central European countries ran to apply for membership of EU and NATO.
The main protagonist of the changes has been the Russian people, who for the first time in its history could speak up. Even if there have been a lot of clashes and points of view, even if we are in front of a limited form of democracy, Russian people can decide their future more than in any time in the past. Politicians have also played a very important role and, of course, the leaders of the country were protagonists of the change, and there has been a lot of “a revolution-from-above”. Nations and identities were also important during the nineties and will keep being in the future. An actor that has lost a lot of its power is the Army, which is undergoing reforms and does not have a say anymore in Russian politics.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
CASHABACK, David Risky Strategies? Putin’s Federal Reforms and the Accommodation of Difference in Russia London School of Economics and Political Science, UK Issue 3/2003, available at http://www.ecmi.de/jemie/download/Cashaback_Autonomy_final.pdf
FERGUSON, R. James “The impact of Soviet and Russian Reforms 1989-2004”, available in http://www.international-relations.com/wbeu/EU-Lec5-2004.doc
NIKOVOV, Nikolai. Vladimir Putin’s successful first term. In Ria Novosty (10/02/2004), available in http://www.artsci.wustl.edu/~filippov/courses/L32_4432/Nikonov.pdf
SHARPE, M.E. Globalisation and Russia. Russian Politics and Law, vol. 41, no. 5, September–October 2003, pp. 5–41.
SHEIFLER, Andrei and TREISMAN, Daniel. “A normal country” in Foreign Affairs (March/April 2004).
[1] FERGUSON, R. James (2004) “The impact of Soviet and Russian Reforms 1989-2004”